Turkish-Russian trade, a long-standing economic relationship, is now under threat due to fresh US sanctions. The sanctions aim to reduce the Kremlin’s revenue and disrupt its war in Ukraine without choking Russian oil flows to global markets.
The US threat to impose sanctions on financial firms doing business with Russia has slowed down some payments for both imported oil and Turkish exports, significantly disrupting the trade between the two countries.
The fresh US sanctions won’t only impact the Turkish-Russia trade, but would also negatively affect Russian oil supplied to India and complicate the ties with other global superpowers, like the UAE and China.
However, the expectations of the USA to disrupt the trade by imposing sanctions are supposedly deemed for failure, as the two countries share a rich trade history even in difficult times.
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Historical Turkish-Russian Trade Relations
Turkey and Russia, two nations with rich histories, have experienced significant territorial changes over the centuries. The Ottoman Empire, founded by Turkish tribes in Anatolia around 1300, grew to be one of the most powerful states in the world during the 15th and 16th centuries.
Similarly, Russia (or the USSR), which was relatively under-resourced and surrounded by more powerful neighbors, emerged as a major European power in the late 16th century.
From the late 16th until the early 20th century, relations between the Ottoman and Russian empires were normally adverse and hostile, and the two powers were engaged in numerous Russo-Turkish wars. Despite these conflicts, trade relations persisted.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, relations between Turkey and Russia improved significantly. Notably, the two countries came to rank among each other’s largest trade partners.
Russia became Turkey’s largest provider of energy, while many Turkish companies began to operate in Russia. In 2021, Russia exported $20.1B to Turkey, with the main products being Refined Petroleum ($3.75B), Crude Petroleum ($2.11B), and Wheat ($1.79B).
On the other hand, Turkey exported $5.93B to Russia, with the main products being Citrus ($431M), Motor vehicles; parts and accessories (8701 to 8705) ($325M), and Pitted Fruits ($211M).
What Lies Ahead?
In the 21st century, the first instance of a visible impact on the Turkish-Russia trade was observed back in the year 2015, when a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 military aircraft violated Turkish airspace and was shot down by the F-16 fighter jets.
Although the incident marked a sour diplomatic and trade relationship between the two for a brief period, the operations resumed and flourished in a matter of time.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, however, marked another significant change in the trade relations shared between the 2 countries. And with the fresh US sanctions being imposed, it will be interesting to note the possible developments in the near future.
As the global community continues to watch the unfolding situation, the resilience of the Turkish-Russian trade ties will be put to the test. The impact of these sanctions on the global economy and the geopolitical landscape will also be closely monitored.