Azerbaijan is planning a “full-scale war” against Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned on February 16, two days after a skirmish on the border left four Armenian troops dead. Tensions have remained elevated between the neighboring countries in the Caucasus region since Baku recaptured the Armenian-populated area of Nagorno-Karabakh in a swift military operation last September.
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A History of Bloodshed
For years, Nagorno-Karabakh has been a flashpoint. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Azerbaijan and Armenia engaged in a bloody war over this contested territory. The fighting resulted in thousands of deaths and left deep scars on both nations. The 2020 conflict saw another devastating escalation, with Russian peacekeepers stepping in to quell the violence.
The Lachin Corridor
In December 2022, Azerbaijan effectively blocked the vital Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting the Republic of Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. This artery supplies essential goods to the enclave, but during the blockade, residents faced severe shortages of food and medication. Accusations flew: Azerbaijan claimed Armenia was using the road for military purposes, while Armenia denied the allegations. The situation escalated, and Russian peacekeepers, who had maintained stability since 2020, found their attention diverted by the Ukrainian crisis.
What’s happening now in Azerbaijan-Armenia?
The border conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia escalated on February 12-13, leaving four Armenian soldiers dead. Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Baku of preparing for an invasion. He said that Azerbaijan’s refusal to accept Armenia’s latest offers on border demarcation/delimitation indicated its plan to launch military attacks on some border areas and start a full-scale war against Armenia. He said that this was evident from Baku’s statements and actions. He made these comments at a cabinet meeting on February 15.
Azerbaijan claimed that its forces were shot at by an Armenian army post in the Syunik region in the south on February 12, injuring one Azerbaijani soldier. Armenia denied this allegation.The next day, Azerbaijan carried out what it called a “revenge operation,” firing heavily at the same Armenian post for four hours and killing four soldiers and injuring another.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry reacted swiftly to Pashinyan’s remark. It brought up “Armenia’s territorial claims on Azerbaijan.” This referred to Armenia’s Constitution, which – by citing other documents – demands the integration of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which used to be populated by Armenians, with Armenia. The issue of changing the Armenian constitution has sparked heated debates in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia change its constitution has hindered the long-standing effort to reach a lasting peace agreement between the rival states.
What lies ahead?
As of today, Nagorno-Karabakh remains a contentious issue.
Russian peacekeepers patrol the region continuously, but these incidents continue. There were talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia aim to find a lasting resolution in the recent past but with these new allegations it seems less likely for the two nations to reach a point of peace.The border violence and the escalating Azerbaijani rhetoric have exacerbated existing fears in Armenia of an Azerbaijani invasion. Specifically, there is apprehension that Baku will seek to use force to realize its demand for an extraterritorial corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has broader implications for regional stability.
International actors closely monitor developments, wary of renewed hostilities.
In this complex geopolitical landscape, the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh hangs in the balance. The scars of history run deep, and the path to lasting peace remains uncertain .
